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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.