A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
